Month: December 2025

Global venture capital is in a selective but strongly recovering phase, with capital concentrating into fewer, larger rounds in AI, infrastructure, and defense, while non‑AI and earlier stages remain comparatively constrained. Over the next 30 days, expect continued mega‑rounds in AI and infra, more late‑stage bridge and extension rounds, and a modest pickup in VC‑backed IPO and M&A activity rather than a full reopening of the exit window.jpmorgan+3​

Market level: where VC stands now

Global VC deployment is rising even as deal counts fall, meaning more dollars are chasing fewer, more mature companies, particularly in AI. KPMG and CB Insights data for Q3 2025 show about $120–126 billion of global VC investment in the quarter and four consecutive quarters of growth, with AI startups capturing roughly half of total funding and a rising share of deal value.alterdomus+2​

The median deal size has risen to around $6 million, with average deal sizes near $59 million, driven by mega‑rounds for frontier AI and infrastructure companies such as xAI and Anthropic. US‑based deals dominate late‑stage funding and AI transactions, while Europe is seeing pockets of strength in defense and dual‑use technologies.raison+2​

Recent trendlines (last 30–60 days)

Investor sentiment has turned cautiously positive, helped by more stable macro conditions, easing rate expectations, and improving tech IPO performance. Large multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar rounds and a handful of strong IPO debuts have started to reset expectations that the “funding winter” is ending, even though fundraising for new VC funds and exits remain below 2021 peaks.wellington+2​

There is a clear bifurcation: AI, infra, and defense are seeing intense competition and high valuations, while consumer, non‑AI SaaS, and many frontier hardware categories still face longer fundraising cycles and more investor scrutiny on unit economics. Private markets are also converging with public markets as crossover and growth equity investors selectively return to late‑stage deals that can plausibly reach liquidity in the next two to three years.fladgate+3​

Key late‑stage and mega‑rounds (Nov 2025)

Several large rounds in November underscore where top‑tier and growth investors are concentrating capital. Notable examples include:secondtalent+1​

• Cursor raised roughly $2.3 billion at about a $29.3 billion valuation for an AI‑native coding workspace, led by Accel and Coatue, making it one of the largest software growth rounds of the year. This cements AI developer tools as a core late‑stage theme for generalist and Tier‑1 firms.techstartups​

• CHAOS Industries secured about $510 million in a late‑stage round led by Valor Equity Partners to build autonomous defense platforms and sensing systems, reflecting sustained interest in defense tech.techstartups​

• AI infrastructure and inference remained hot, with d‑Matrix raising about $275 million (Series C, ≈$2 billion valuation) backed by investors including Temasek and Microsoft’s venture arm, and Fireworks AI closing a $250 million Series C led by Lightspeed for an independent AI inference cloud.techstartups​

• In vertical AI and workflow, Beacon Software raised $250 million (Series B) to build industry‑specific AI applications, while Scribe, Sweet Security, and GC AI attracted sizable Series B and C checks focused on documentation, cloud security, and legal workflows.secondtalent+1​

• Logistics and climate‑adjacent assets also saw activity, such as Gopuff’s $250 million growth round at about an $8.5 billion valuation and Harbinger’s $160 million Series C for medium‑duty commercial EV trucks.techstartups​

In biotech and health, AI‑enabled drug discovery continues to attract very large early and mid‑stage rounds, including Braveheart Bio’s roughly $185 million Series A, Iambic Therapeutics’ $100‑plus‑million Series B, and Tala Health’s $100 million seed round, all focused on AI‑driven discovery or care.techstartups+1​

Early-stage & Tier‑1‑backed “new names”

Tier‑1 funds remain highly active but heavily concentrated in AI agents, infra, and deep tech platforms. Over the past month, several new or still‑emerging companies backed by top firms include:secondtalent+1​

• Wonderful, which raised about $100 million Series A at around a $700 million valuation led by Index Ventures to build multilingual, culturally aware enterprise AI agents.techstartups​

• Parallel Web Systems, backed by Kleiner Perkins and Index with around $100 million Series A, building an internet layer for AI agents and live web data.techstartups​

• Majestic Labs, which raised roughly $71–100 million (Series A) led by Bow Wave Capital for high‑memory AI server architectures, reflecting strong infra demand.secondtalent+1​

• Reevo, an early‑stage AI company that raised about $80 million from Khosla Ventures and Kleiner Perkins, remaining mostly in stealth but signaling continued enthusiasm for frontier AI models or platforms.secondtalent​

Other Tier‑1 VC activity is clustering around AI‑first vertical SaaS (e.g., GC AI for legal, Gamma for visual storytelling), with Andreessen Horowitz and other top firms repeatedly showing up in mid‑sized ($60–100 million) growth rounds.secondtalent+1​

IPO and exit environment

The IPO window for VC‑backed companies has reopened selectively, skewed toward profitable or near‑profitability and infra‑heavy names. 2025 has seen over 300 IPOs in total, with a subset of venture‑backed tech listings such as CoreWeave and Circle Internet Group delivering substantial post‑IPO gains and multi‑billion‑dollar enterprise values.stockanalysis+4​

While traditional VC‑backed IPO counts remain well below 2021 levels, recent completions and strong aftermarket performance suggest increasing investor appetite for quality growth stories, especially in AI infrastructure and fintech. M&A is also picking up, with the number and value of transactions over $500 million on track in 2025 to match or exceed full‑year 2024 totals, aided by more relaxed antitrust expectations under the current US administration.freewritings+3​

Snapshot: themes by segment

Next 30 days: what to expect

Macro conditions (rates plateauing, cooling inflation) and a more pro‑business US policy stance should continue to support risk assets, including late‑stage venture and growth equities. With the Goldman Sachs IPO Issuance Barometer sitting well above historical averages and recent tech IPOs trading up, banks and sponsors have an incentive to push more high‑quality, VC‑backed names to file and price over the coming weeks and into early 2026.wellington+1​

In December and early January, expect:

• More large AI and infra rounds: Additional $100M+ financings in AI agents, data infrastructure, and inference hardware are likely as funds race to secure positions in perceived category leaders.forbes+2​

• Growing use of structured terms: As investors stretch on valuation in hot sectors, structured equity, secondaries, and hybrid growth deals may appear more frequently, especially for late‑stage AI and infra.pwc+1​

• Incremental IPO and M&A uptick: A modest increase in VC‑backed listings and strategic tech M&A should continue, but exits will remain concentrated in profitable or “must‑own infra” assets rather than broad‑based across all sectors.forbes+2​

• Tough conditions for “non‑theme” startups: Founders outside AI, defense, and climate/infra should still expect slower processes, more down or flat rounds, and pressure to hit profitability milestones, especially at Series B and beyond.natlawreview+1​

For a founder, this environment rewards being either clearly in the high‑conviction themes (AI/infra, defense, climate, AI‑biotech) or running a capital‑efficient business with visible near‑term profitability; for an investor, it is an attractive moment to deploy into top‑quartile managers and late‑stage leaders while valuations remain below peak exuberance outside the most competitive AI names.natlawreview+1​